Base case for the week
Expect a strong recovery pattern with a potential breakout above 72,000.
The most practical weekly framework is to assume the current trend remains intact unless one of the main catalysts changes materially. Traders should focus on confirmation, not prediction.
Bullish path
Bitcoin strengthens if momentum stays aligned with its primary drivers, especially when etf flow momentum and us dollar and ratescontinue to support the same direction.
Bearish path
The weekly outlook weakens when the market narrative flips quickly, positioning gets crowded, or one of the headline catalysts loses support and forces a fast repricing.
What would invalidate the thesis
- US dollar and rates strength
- Declining crypto risk appetite
- Liquidity pullback