Direct answer
USD/JPY may fall on dollar weakness and reduced carry trade demand.
Most likely bearish catalysts
Dollar weakness
Weakening dollar weakness can pressure USD/JPY and accelerate liquidations.
Reduced carry trade
Weakening reduced carry trade can pressure USD/JPY and accelerate liquidations.
US yield drop
Weakening us yield drop can pressure USD/JPY and accelerate liquidations.
What confirms the selloff
- Confirm the drop is tied to real weakness in us yields instead of a brief flush.
- Check whether the move is spreading across related forex markets.
- Only trust continuation if breakdowns hold after the first fast selloff.