Direct answer
Global markets are sensitive to US monetary policy and trade tensions.
Most likely drivers right now
US yields
If us yields changes, traders often reprice USD/JPY quickly.
Bank of Japan policy
If bank of japan policy changes, traders often reprice USD/JPY quickly.
carry trade demand
If carry trade demand changes, traders often reprice USD/JPY quickly.
dollar strength
If dollar strength changes, traders often reprice USD/JPY quickly.
How to avoid a bad read
- Higher highs and lows
- Price above 30-day MA
- Strong momentum
Best sources to confirm the move
- Central-bank expectations, speeches, and policy paths
- Rate differentials, real yields, and swap-market repricing
- Economic data surprises relative to consensus
- Broad dollar strength and cross-pair confirmation
False-positive signals to avoid
- Lower highs and lows
- Price below 30-day MA
- Loss of momentum