Direct answer
Relative rate expectations and macro surprises drive EUR/USD primarily.
Most likely drivers right now
ECB vs Fed expectations
If ecb vs fed expectations changes, traders often reprice EUR/USD quickly.
US dollar strength
If us dollar strength changes, traders often reprice EUR/USD quickly.
inflation surprises
If inflation surprises changes, traders often reprice EUR/USD quickly.
risk sentiment
If risk sentiment changes, traders often reprice EUR/USD quickly.
How to avoid a bad read
- Higher highs and lows
- Increasing volume
- Breaking resistance
Best sources to confirm the move
- Central-bank expectations, speeches, and policy paths
- Rate differentials, real yields, and swap-market repricing
- Economic data surprises relative to consensus
- Broad dollar strength and cross-pair confirmation
False-positive signals to avoid
- Lower lows and highs
- Decreasing volume
- Falling below support