Direct answer
ECB hawkish hold or softer US CPI could spark short-covering. Risk-on flows may lift EUR temporarily despite broader bearish trend.
Most likely bullish catalysts
ECB hawkish surprise
Improving ecb hawkish surprise can support a stronger bid in EUR/USD.
US CPI miss
Improving us cpi miss can support a stronger bid in EUR/USD.
Fed dovish pivot
Improving fed dovish pivot can support a stronger bid in EUR/USD.
What confirms the rally
- Confirm the move is supported by ecb vs fed expectations rather than a thin short squeeze.
- Check whether leadership across related forex markets is also improving.
- Only trust continuation if the chart holds gains after the first impulsive push.