Direct answer
USD/JPY is usually down today when the market reprices weaker odds across us yields or bank of japan policy. The selloff matters more if breakdowns hold after the first flush.
Most likely bearish catalysts
Weakening us yields
Weakening weakening us yields can pressure USD/JPY and accelerate liquidations.
A fast reversal in bank of japan policy
Weakening a fast reversal in bank of japan policy can pressure USD/JPY and accelerate liquidations.
Headline risk that invalidates the current move
Weakening headline risk that invalidates the current move can pressure USD/JPY and accelerate liquidations.
What confirms the selloff
- Confirm the drop is tied to real weakness in us yields instead of a brief flush.
- Check whether the move is spreading across related forex markets.
- Only trust continuation if breakdowns hold after the first fast selloff.